Is Putin in Trouble?
Ukraines invasion into Russian territory threatens Putin. What's happening?
Is Ukraine turning the tide of war against the mad Tsarist aspirant Vladimir Putin? Well, I certainly hope so. I’m someone who thinks that the future of the democratic, freedom-loving world is pivoting on the outcome of the Ukrainian–Russian war. And just some ten days ago an event occurred that gives some hope that Putin is in trouble: Ukraine invaded Russia. And that invasion seems to be consolidating. However, this is war, and any situation can turn on a dime.
I’m far from being a war or military expert. I’m a total amateur on this. But I’m a keen watcher/reader of the blogs and commentary coming ‘from the ground’ in the war zone. At the end of this Substack I’ve listed and provided links to some of the sources I’ve been following for some time. This includes some excellent Substack writers, Sky News, The Times and YouTube bloggers. There’s a mountain of information that doesn’t make it into the mainstream media, much of it from military experts—for example, a retired general who was in charge of US forces in Europe.
In this article I’ve summarised some of what seems to be the key recent developments. I thought you might be interested. Plus, I’ll give a few of my thoughts on what the implications might be.
The invasion: Commentators/bloggers are universally calling this an ‘incursion’. But, frankly, it’s starting to look like an ‘invasion’ if the Ukrainians keep consolidating.
Around ten days ago the Ukrainians launched a totally surprising, rapid move across the border into the Russian Kursk region. First what seemed like around 100 soldiers, then quickly 1,000 and, yesterday, reports of 10,000 are now in the occupied Kursk region. They have moved some 30 km into Russia and now control 600 square miles. The Russians are hurriedly building fortifications around the Kursk nuclear power plant where it and the city of Kursk are in the direct line of the Ukrainian advance (see map). Russia has evacuated some 76,000 people and now has a ‘refugee’ issue of its own people.
Now some cautionary remarks. All commentators/bloggers say that no-one can be sure about what’s happening. The Ukrainian military and government are saying nothing, neither confirming nor denying. But here’s what appears to be happening.
The invasion/incursion is by the regular Ukrainian army who are extremely well-equipped and well-trained. These are not the Russian anti-Putin renegades who are fighting with Ukraine.
There’s speculation that the Ukrainians are deploying a new drone-jamming technology. In advance of its troops the Ukrainians jam the Russian drone frequencies thereby neutering them. They then send in waves of Ukrainian drones that frequency ‘jump’, rapidly moving from frequency to frequency, thus avoiding jamming from the Russians. If this is true, it represents a major military and technological leap in this war. The Ukrainian drones wreak havoc on the Russians and the Ukrainian soldiers then move in.
Background. ‘Meat grinder’
For the last nine months or more, the war has been at a seeming World War 1-style bloody stalemate. The battles have been focused along the front line in Eastern Ukraine where Russia occupies Ukrainian territory (see pink areas on the map). Those battles have produced a stalemate, with Russia achieving very small territorial gains of a few kilometres but at high cost in terms of lost men and equipment.
The Russian tactic has been dubbed the ‘meat grinder’. Russia amasses large numbers of new, poorly-trained and poorly armed recruits and pushes them across the border where they are bombed/slaughtered by Ukrainian drones and artillery. The Russians then identify the Ukrainian artillery positions and attack them with artillery and better trained, smaller numbers of troops.
The Russian ‘tactic’ has resulted in an estimated 550,000 Russian causalities (deaths and serious injuries). These astonishing losses, confirmed by British military intelligence, must brand Putin as one of the most obnoxious mass murders of all time. And this Russian toll is on top of the mass deaths of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers.
Over this last few months this ‘meat grinder’ tactic has been deployed by the Russians in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. Again the outcome has been very high losses of Russian soldiers for little if any territorial gain.
Along with the mass Russian casualties, Russian equipment losses have been equally extreme. Although Russia has huge amounts of stockpiled Cold War-era equipment, the losses are rapidly depleting these reserves. Countering this is the fact that Putin has devoted 40 per cent of the Russian economy to war production.
Ukrainian counter strategies
Most of the major media reporting of this year has focused on the stalemate on the eastern front. The general impression has been that Ukraine can’t win and will ultimately have to accept loss of its territory as a minimum. But while this has been occurring Ukraine has been ‘quietly’ undertaking strategic activity inside Russian-held territory and inside Russia itself.
Ukraine has destroyed one-third of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. This includes the Russian flag ship and recently a Russian submarine. At the start of the war this was probably considered almost impossible. Ukraine has NO navy but deployed sea drone armaments. The remnants of Russia’s Black Sea fleet have retreated from Sevastopol to minor ports in safer Russian territory (see map).
The Port of Sevastopol has been attacked and is now unsafe for the Russian navy.
The Russian military HQ in Sevastopol has been destroyed by Ukraine bombing.
Russian airports in Crimea have been persistently bombed by Ukraine.
The Kursk Bridge (connecting Russia to Crimea) has been neutralised by Ukraine to the point that the Russians no longer use the bridge to move military supplies. It’s too dangerous for them.
The sea-rail ferries used by Russia to connect with Crimea have been ‘taken out’ by Ukraine.
A few weeks ago Ukraine bombed and, it seems, destroyed a key Russian satellite ground station near Crimea (see map). This has at least partially ‘blinded’ Russian intelligence.
For several months Ukraine has been bombing Russian oil storages and processing plants well inside Russian territory. It’s speculated that Ukraine may have neutralised/disrupted some 5–10 per cent of Russian oil production capacity.
In a surprise to all observers, last week the Ukrainians managed to destroy a primary Russian military airport some 300 km inside Russia (see map). This airport housed some of the most advanced Russian bomber aircraft and held a significant quantity of the Russian glide bombs that cause mass destruction in Ukraine. Satellite photos show that nothing is left at the airport. Its’ been flattened.
Ukraine has been ‘hanging out’ for the arrival of the 65 F16s fighter jets pledged by NATO countries. The first arrived on 5 August. Before being delivered, many months of training has gone into Ukrainian pilots and support/maintenance personnel. There are some indications that F16s may have been involved in the Kursk invasion/incursion.
Some amateur observations/comments
According to the Art of War of Sun Tzu, an army’s resources (soldiers and weapons) should be likened to a full dam. When it bursts, the pressure is at its greatest. Over time the water runs down and the pressure weakens. Russia could be looking like a dam that has lost much of its pressure. The massive loss of human lives (meat grinder) combined with weapons losses could be making Russia vulnerable.
Ukraine demonstrates that its counter-strategies, over the last year at least, have been to (a) hold the line on the (Eastern) war front, (b) allow Russia to sacrifice its soldiers in death waves, (c) strategically deplete Russia’s income source (oil) where it can, (d) neutralise the Crimea/Black Sea as a Russian military enclave and now (e) strike military airports deep inside Russian territory. In short, while Russia has focussed on killing Ukrainian civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure (electricity, etc.), Ukraine has steadily focussed on building its military capacity and taking out Russian military assets.
From a geopolitical perspective, what happens in Ukraine must send signals to Xi Jinping in China. If Putin can’t take out Ukraine, what does that say to Xi Jinping about his ambitions to invade Taiwan? Taiwan would be a vastly more difficult military exercise compared with Ukraine. And with the partial destruction of the Russian Black Sea fleet, what does that now say about long-held assumptions of naval power?
Then there is the US Presidential election. Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine, but not said how. Trump’s alleged military advisers and others have loudly claimed that Ukraine should accept loss of territory to Russia and draw new national boundaries. But if Crimea were held by Russia, but militarily neutered by Ukraine, why should Ukraine cede Crimea? And if the Kursk incursion/invasion by Ukraine solidifies, with Ukraine holding substantial Russian territory, the ‘bargaining equation’ suddenly shifts.
Much of the Russian/Ukraine war hinges around US politics. This was the case in both the first and second World Wars as well. The US Presidential election is pivotal, but it’s still three months away. Plenty can happen in three months in this war.
An interesting additional fact
Poland now has the largest army in Europe with 216,000 personnel, tipped to grow to 300,000. Poland spends 4 per cent of its budget on defence and next year (2025) will take that to 5 per cent. Poland is a significant supplier of arms to Ukraine, shipping its Cold War armaments and backfilling with modern military technology. Further, Poland has the fastest growing economy in Europe at around 3 per cent.
Here is some pure speculation: If it looked likely that Russia was going to successfully conquer Ukraine (or large parts of it), I think that Poland would move into Ukraine, NATO notwithstanding. Put simply, Poland is much better off fighting Russia in Ukraine than it would be fighting Russia in Poland.
Some blogger/commentator links
Hi Ken
In seeking information on the relationship between Russia and the West I found this interesting piece written by a British academic whose speciality is Russian literature, and who has been visiting Russia regularly for decades. Her perspective is different from that of most commentators and is worth adding to your collection.
https://catherinebrown.org/deconstructing-russophobia/
I'm pleased that you're trying to make sense of this conflict Ken.
Back in 2022 I found myself very puzzled by the narrative coming through the media, and set about trying to understand the CAUSES of the conflict. This took me down a long and winding road as I tried to find my way through all the propaganda and deception (a common feature of conflicts) and in the process found that I had to modify many (or even most) of my pre-conceived notions. After about 18 months I felt that I had sorted through this sufficiently to produce an (amateur) article, as follows:
https://johnalden.substack.com/p/a-beginners-guide-to-the-conflict?r=23yy4s
and followed up 6 months later with an update:
https://johnalden.substack.com/p/the-tragedy-of-ukraine-requiem-for?r=23yy4s
I'm not trying to impose my views on others, just encouraging people to do research and in the process be very wary of propagande, including western propaganda. I hope this assists.